Saturday, November 22, 2008

Forum :: Conflicts :: Where will it start?

Page 1 of 1 Where will it start?
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Ghauri1003 Joined: 29 June 2005 Posts in this thread: 2	Posted on 21 March 2006 4:29 AM Where will it begin? In regards to a major power conflict where do you think the spark will fire? I can see it happening in the Middle East, but Taiwan sits on my mind. It seems that Iran may find itself under attack from America. I wonder what Russia might do? The sad thing is I have very little confidence that the world can avoid another major conflict. The only conceivable way we can retain general peace is for America to stay the dominant military power. I enjoy the way of life I believe America stands for. I don't like the regimes in other countries especially those like Iran and the like. Though Ive never lived under those regimes from what Ive seen it looks pretty bad. I also believe there are peoples on this planet who really dont like the Western way of life. If certain contries get the destructive power of a nuclear bomb we are in a bit of strife. So if tomorrow Iran declares they have a nuclear weapon will the people of the Western world want Iran destroyed? And could the declaration of war on Iran lead to a another power stepping in against the U.S.? Anyone else got any theories on potential ignition points for a major conflict? Thanks, Jared Post Reply
Orion1003 Joined: 07 February 2006 Posts in this thread: 1	Posted on 31 March 2006 11:26 PM Yeah, I think a major conflict is probably headed towards us, and it might very well be starting with Iran, for all we know attacking Iraq might of been part of a much larger plot by Bush to gain a foothold on Iran's Border... Also China and North Korea i think might be part of a future conflict with the US and/or some European countries. Post Reply
Libra1003 Joined: 01 April 2006 Posts in this thread: 1	Posted on 01 April 2006 5:34 PM I think for now your right the next conflict if any if going to come between Iran and the US, will Russia step in probably not their conevntional forces are a mess and would not stand up very well against a battle hardened US force and they wont take the embarrassment of getting pushed out of iran, they may talk some trash but acually getting involved other than intellegence and advising Iran its very unlikely. Even though I think the well equiped and well trained south korean forces are more than a match for their outdated neighbors north korean I dont think it would be a stretch to see a conflict there also I doubt the US and China will flex their muscles against each other soon there is too much other stuff going on in the world right now that has there attention off each other, I think the Middle east is going to be the biggest hot spot for at least another 5-10 years. Post Reply
Hydra1005 Joined: 03 April 2006 Posts in this thread: 2	Posted on 05 April 2006 3:40 PM World War III will probably start in the oil rich South China Sea. To the north, the Pratas Island and the submerged Macclesfield Bank are claimed by Taiwan and China. All the Paracel Islands are claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan and China, on historic grounds, although these have been occupied exclusively by China since 1974. China and Vietnam disagree over their maritime boundary in the Gulf of Tonkin. The naval battle would be in China's favour short term without US intervention out of Cam Ranh Bay on Vietnam's invitation. Further south, the Spratly Islands are spread astride strategic sea lanes and are claimed by: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. China's power projection capabilities--naval and long-range air forces--are probably not yet up to the task of seizing and holding such a large ocean area 800 miles from the Chinese mainland. At best, it would be a high-risk operation that might bring US and Japanese naval forces into play. 80% of Japan's oil goes through by ship in the South China Sea. A naval clash between Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan would cripple dozens of Japanese bound oil tankers and Japan would probably be drawn in against the Chinese PLN or have its economy collapse within 6 months. US nuclear armed SSNs, and CBGs could also be drawn int the battle against Chinese naval forces, if they are provoked off Taiwan station. Post Reply
Hydra1005 Joined: 03 April 2006 Posts in this thread: 2	Posted on 05 April 2006 3:49 PM What do you think of a Japanese, Taiwanese joint naval battle with the Chinese PLN, circa 2008-09. What ships do you see in combat, and who wins a short tactical battle with USN assistance? Lets say 1,000 miles south of the Chinese mainland. What airforces are in play for China, and if any for Japan (using their mini "carriers")??? Im interested in any suggestions. Manstein Post Reply
Ghauri1003 Joined: 29 June 2005 Posts in this thread: 2	Posted on 16 April 2006 5:19 AM I don't really know enough about Japan's navy, so any comment would just be guessing. One thing I do know, and I doubt anybody could disagree, is that any conflict- be it in the Asia area or the Middle east will see the worlds oil supplies interupted. That in itself is the biggest problem facing the western world. Any conflict that manages to significantly increase the cost of a barrel of oil WILL send western economies into recession. More so an Iranian conflict will be devastating. One of my worst scenarios I have in mind is a land based conflict whereby Iran invades Iraq. You all probaly know about the recent testing by Iran of their underwater missile? Well what if one of those puppies managed to hit a USS Nimitz class carrier? Removing US airpower from the gulf followed by a concerted land incursion into Iraq. Oil supplies are interupted in a big way, and the world begins to become very unstable. In this scenario allied airpower will be the only thing that can stop a Iranian land campaign but would it be able to with a destablised planet? Factions in Iraq will uprise, fuel supplies to Iraq based air elements would be comprimised. The US would be severely disabled by the loss of their expeditionary forces at the same time suffering from fuel shortages at home. Of course the obvious answer would be a tactical nuclear strike on Iran but the damage would be done. Western economies would spiral into recession causing more instability and nations taking un-foreseen steps to halt the decline. I live in Australia we are paying about a $1.30aus for fuel at the moment. If that price doubled we would be in deep do do. Even for say Japan, if their oil supplies were interupted I could not see them standing by and doing nothing. And from what I know of the military they could really take the fight to China if that was required. This whole thing is a real problem for western society. We have a glaring achilles heal just waiting to be struck. Not very confidence inspiring. Post Reply
Stingray1004 Joined: 30 October 2006 Posts in this thread: 2	Posted on 31 October 2006 3:48 AM Keep in mind the falkland war , to predict this one would have been a stroke of genius ,same with first world war , an archiduke killed in bosnia ! The truth is than the middle east , taiwan or north corea are standard watching brief , move and counter move perfectly choregraphed my favorites for what it's worth are the baltic states or bielorussia , withpoland lighting the match for china ,some trouble on the vietnamese border turning ugly , with the USA flying to the rescue of the DPR of vietnam Post Reply
Stingray1004 Joined: 30 October 2006 Posts in this thread: 2	Posted on 31 October 2006 3:53 AM on the naval force , china is getting three aircraft carriers with the naval version of the sukoi 30 , they also have passed orders for refueling planes to increase the range of their planes it would make any american task force stay to the lee of taiwan Post Reply
Sampson1007 Joined: 24 August 2007 Posts in this thread: 1	Posted on 28 December 2007 11:15 AM Just because there are thousands of potential crises that could turn into large conflicts does not mean that they will. Though anything is, of course possible, people have learned since the last WW's. Post Reply
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